Will Iran officially announce a closure or formal blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by September 19, 2026?

Question 1

Accepted Answer

As of September 16, 2026, nobody has traded this market yet, so it carries no market-implied probability. Yes opens at 50¢ and No at 50¢ — the prices every Stips market is seeded with before anyone takes a side, which should not be quoted as a 50% forecast. The market is open for trading in play money and closes September 19, 2026.

Question 2

How will "Will Iran officially announce a closure or formal blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by September 19, 2026?" be settled?

Accepted Answer

Trading stops at the close time on September 19, 2026, after which the market is settled against public evidence — an official announcement, a published result or a primary source, such as reporting from middleeasteye.net. Winning positions are paid automatically in play credits; losing positions pay nothing.